Underwriting is undergoing a major transformation as financial institutions push for faster decisions, better fraud detection, and greater personalization, according to a new global Experian report. By 2030, credit decisions are expected to become embedded in everyday transactions, with artificial intelligence and automation taking on a bigger role.
The report, based on surveys and interviews with 708 senior credit and fraud risk leaders across 10 countries, found that 83 percent of respondents expect real-time loan approvals and payments to become standard. This shift is being driven by consumer expectations for instant, seamless borrowing experiences and more transparent credit terms.
In half of the countries surveyed, fraud risk was cited as the top barrier to underwriting effectiveness (Source: Experian)
Consumer demand drives change
Younger borrowers are driving much of the change. Many expect fast, personalized credit offers and are willing to switch providers if their digital experience falls short. In fact, more than half of Gen Z and Millennial customers will leave their institution if they are unhappy with the digital process.
Respondents pointed to three top consumer priorities for 2030: speed, personalization, and transparency. Forty-four percent said customers want frictionless borrowing, 40 percent want highly personalized credit products, and 38 percent want more visibility into fees and decisions.
This shift is also leading to more embedded lending, where credit decisions happen directly within e-commerce platforms or accounting tools, rather than through separate banking portals.
Fraud risk becomes harder to track
As underwriting becomes faster and more seamless, fraud detection becomes more difficult. Fraudsters are adapting to low-friction processes that remove traditional checkpoints like manual reviews and two-factor authentication.
Fraud risk ranked as the top challenge for underwriting in half of the countries surveyed, including the United States and United Kingdom. Ninety-four percent of respondents believe fraud prevention will remain a top priority for financial institutions five years from now.
Researchers warn that detecting fraud will require continuous trust signals rather than one-time checks. This includes using device and behavioral biometrics, consent-based data sharing, and dynamic trust scores that update in real time.
AI takes a bigger role, but humans stay involved
AI is expected to play a central role in this transformation. By 2030, respondents expect underwriting to be driven by agentic AI, where AI-powered systems act on behalf of customers to compare products, verify identities, and even negotiate terms.
However, AI will not fully replace humans. Seventy-seven percent of respondents believe AI will primarily take over junior underwriter tasks, while senior staff will remain involved in complex or high-value cases.
This transition also brings new risks. Fraudsters may attempt to manipulate AI agents by inserting stolen data or issuing false instructions. As a result, financial institutions will need to secure these systems while maintaining customer trust and transparency.
Alternative data and partnerships rise
The report highlights the growing importance of alternative data sources, such as payroll, e-commerce, and telecommunications records, to improve decision-making for thin-file or underserved customers. Eighty-four percent of respondents said credit bureaus will need to integrate alternative data to stay competitive.
Synthetic data, which mimics real-world data without exposing sensitive information, is also expected to play a larger role. It can help reduce bias and improve inclusion in credit models.
Many institutions are expected to shift to a partnership model to access these new capabilities. By 2030, more than 60 percent of respondents plan to outsource parts of their underwriting, such as data collection, fraud detection, or scoring.
