Dr. Jonathan Slotkin, a neurosurgeon and co-founder of Scrub Capital, published an excellent piece in the NYT today about autonomous car safety.
[DANIEL: Opening commentary here]
The human cost
When that much energy enters a skull, no operation can turn it back.Dr. Jonathan Slotkin
[DANIEL: Comment on prevention vs. treatment]
The data
Waymo’s safety performance data from 100 million driverless miles across 4 U.S. cities (through June 2025):
- 91% fewer serious-injury-or-worse crashes compared to human drivers on the same roads
- 80% fewer injury-causing crashes compared to human drivers
- 96% lower rate of injury-causing crashes at intersections
[DANIEL: React to these numbers]
The human driving baseline
- 39,000 Americans died in motor vehicle crashes last year
- 10,000 crash victims arrive at emergency rooms daily
- Crashes are the #2 leading cause of death for children and young adults
- $1 trillion+ combined annual economic and quality-of-life toll from crashes
[DANIEL: Comment on how we accept this as normal]
The adoption threshold
We do not need everyone to use self-driving cars to realize profound safety gains.Dr. Jonathan Slotkin
If 30% of cars were fully automated, could prevent approximately 40% of crashes overall.
[DANIEL: Comment on partial adoption being enough]
Why autonomous vehicles are safer
A system that follows rules, avoids distraction, sees in all directions and prevents high-speed conflicts will avert deadly collisions much more often.Dr. Jonathan Slotkin
[DANIEL: Comment on the obvious logic here]
The documented Waymo incidents
All serious incidents involving Waymo vehicles were caused by human drivers, not Waymo system failures:
- High-speed crash pushing another car into stopped Waymo vehicle
- Red-light runner hitting Waymo and other vehicles
- Motorcyclist hit by Waymo, then fatally struck by hit-and-run driver
Minor incidents:
- Vehicle looped parking lot roundabout for five minutes
- Software recall after hitting utility pole at low speed
[DANIEL: Comment on the irony of humans causing the accidents]
Political resistance
Washington, D.C.: Postponed key autonomous vehicle deployment report despite 18 months of successful testing.
Boston: City Council considering mandatory “human safety operator” requirement in every autonomous vehicle.
[DANIEL: Comment on emotional vs. data-driven policy]
The accountability difference
Autonomous vehicles must report ALL contacts causing injury or property damage over $1,000, while human drivers don’t report the majority of accidents despite many involving injuries.
[DANIEL: Final thoughts on transparency and accountability]