Artificial intelligence will take center stage during Trump’s Gulf trip.

• AI as a primary focus
• Emphasis on attracting investment
• Trump visiting Gulf May 13-16

Artificial intelligence is anticipated to dominate discussions during US President Donald Trump’s visit to Qatar, Saudi Arabia, and the United Arab Emirates in mid-May, with officials keen to announce new collaborations.

Talks are likely to center on securing increased GCC investments in US technology and enhancing Gulf nations’ access to advanced American semiconductor technology.

According to industry observers, the partners must navigate mutual interests around protecting Gulf commercial ventures while addressing US national security concerns related to China.

“Establishing strong partnerships between the United States and GCC countries on technologies vital to national security is paramount when interests converge,” states Thea Kendler, a partner at Mayer Brown in Washington, who previously served as assistant secretary for export administration at the US commerce department.

Since Trump’s return to the White House, Saudi Arabia and the UAE have pledged a combined $2 trillion in future investments in America, much of it focused on sensitive technologies.

The president is preparing for his trip to the region on May 13-16 to seek even larger commitments.

The extent to which these pledges materialize will partially depend on the analysis conducted by the treasury department-led Committee on Foreign Investment in the United States (CFIUS) regarding their national security implications.

Mohammed Soliman of McLarty Associates and the Middle East Institute in Washington expects CFIUS to play a prominent role during Trump’s visit.

“I find it hard to comprehend how we can maintain a restrictive CFIUS process while anticipating trillions in investments,” he remarks. “None of those countries are interested in traditional investments; they want to finance chips, data centers, and space tech—all of which are critical.”

GCC nations are also aiming to establish world-class AI ecosystems, which necessitate access to top-tier semiconductors.

“One potential pitch could be that in return for substantial investments in the US, they would like the Trump administration to approve exporting more chips to the Gulf,” remarks Sam Winter-Levy, a fellow for technology and international affairs at the Carnegie Endowment for International Peace.

The Biden administration implemented restrictions on semiconductor sales to the Middle East in October 2023, viewing it as a potential pathway for Chinese military access.

Consequently, negotiations led to an agreement between Emirati AI firm G42 and Microsoft, where G42 divested its interests in Chinese tech firms.

Similar agreements were established between Saudi Arabia’s Public Investment Fund and Google, Abu Dhabi’s MGX and OpenAI, and the Qatari government and California-based Scale AI.

According to Winter-Levy, the Trump administration might now permit US cloud companies to establish more data centers in the region or facilitate Gulf businesses in purchasing the American semiconductors necessary for independent operations.

“These two models carry different risks,” he states.

In the first scenario, US foreign policy could become reliant on a Gulf that hosts numerous joint data centers. The second option could enable local players to leverage the latest AI for weapons development, intelligence gathering, and cyber tools.

“It’s my understanding that internal debates within the administration are ongoing,” Winter-Levy adds.

Regardless, sources believe that Trump’s Gulf trip might give rise to government-to-government agreements outlining standards that would allow Qatar, Saudi Arabia, and the UAE to purchase US chips beyond the current limits defined by the Framework for Artificial Intelligence Diffusion established in the concluding days of the Biden administration.

On Wednesday, Reuters reported that Trump officials are working to amend the rule to enhance the significance of such government-to-government negotiations.

As part of ongoing discussions with the UAE, the Commerce Department and the White House are considering raising the ceilings on Emirati purchases of Nvidia chips, Bloomberg reported Thursday.

“Concerns regarding China’s military advancements using technologies like AI are nonpartisan,” Kendler tells AGBI. “National security is crucial to the Trump administration based on my observations, just as it was for the Biden administration.”

However, sources indicate that Washington cannot expect the Gulf to entirely sever ties with China, its largest trading partner and oil consumer.

“Our stance in the Biden administration has always been that this discussion is about the most sophisticated advanced technology where national security is at play,” Kendler shares. “This is not merely about standard commercial technology.”

Like Biden, President Trump faces the challenge of balancing conflicting perspectives from the pro-business and national security factions within his administration.

Soliman cautions against a “rising current” in Washington of policymakers across the political spectrum who are “incredibly hawkish” and view any engagement with China as “nearly a betrayal.”

“I believe this mindset is unhealthy in today’s multi-polar economic landscape,” he states.

Winter-Levy asserts that “a deal can be struck” allowing US companies to build some new data centers in the Gulf alongside local partners while preventing the transfer of their most advanced capabilities.

“They must ensure that UAE and Saudi tech companies can obtain sufficient chips to train models slightly behind the cutting edge,” he concludes.