The development of artificial intelligence (AI) means that what is new today will inevitably be surpassed in just a few months. Speaking at the AI Summit in London, air chief marshal Rich Knighton, chief of defence staff, told delegates that even today’s AI models have the capacity and capability to transform warfare.
“They can process satellite imagery, open source information, logistics, electronic signatures and battlefield reports at a scale that no human headquarters could replicate,” he said. “They could identify patterns, anomalies and even suggest possible courses of action.”
Knighton believes that AI models can help commanders understand not only what is happening now, but what might happen next: “I don’t think that we need to fast forward five years or even 35 years from today to see how the battlefield of the future will be shaped by AI.”
As Knighton noted, there are now a range of AI systems that are starting to outperform PhD level experts and compete with top-level software engineers. He said the length of time it takes AI to complete tasks autonomously is dramatically reducing: “The frontier is moving incredibly fast and we must be ready to update our assumptions about what AI can do rapidly as it is changing every six months.
“We can imagine what this might mean for defence if we can keep pace with the frontier and exploit new models and changes as they are updated every six months or quicker then we will have a clear advantage in the future.
Knighton stated that many of today’s AI models already have the potential to accelerate the military decision-making cycle to machine speed, removing what he called “many of the cognitive biases that haunts human decision-making”, adding: “There is both massive risk and huge opportunity even before we think about the ethical questions of the use of AI in warfare.”
But he said the UK’s policy remains that humans, not machines, are accountable for decisions, especially when they relate to the application of lethal force. “Defence will continue to ensure that there is a context appropriate human involvement in the development of all AI-enabled systems,” he said.
Looking at some of the pilots currently running, Knighton said the Royal Navy has been conducting trials at sea using experimental vessel XV Patrick Blackett. The robotic rigid inflatable boat is equipped with cameras and sensors on board, which feed back data and video to control units and computers on XV Patrick Blackett for analysis. The vessel can be equipped with other sensors and weapons enabling it to be used for intelligence, surveillance and reconnaissance operations with real-time data feeds.
“We are using AI to enable fully autonomous navigation and decision-making in un-crewed vessels by fusing sensor data and offering the ability to act without any human input. This is the foundational capability for growing a hybrid navy,” Knighton said.
AI is also being used to enhance the effectiveness of military intelligence services to overcome what Knighton describes as “bottlenecked legacy processes and tools”. The result, according to Knighton, is that military analysts have been able to cut identification and response times down from weeks to hours.
