NBN Co is anticipating over half a million premises per year to upgrade to full fibre connections from FY27, a 66 percent increase on the present run rate.
The expectations are part of a draft set of expectations for the first part of the “next regulatory period” under its special access undertaking (SAU), released yesterday [pdf].
That period runs from FY27 to FY29.
NBN Co will be well and truly done with the overbuild of portions of its fibre-to-the-node (FTTN) and fibre-to-the-curb (FTTC) footprint with a full-fibre network.
However, it will be hoping to use the period to increase the number of customers within upgraded areas that actually convert to fibre, rather than sticking with their current FTTN or FTTC service.
In FY24 – the financial year just gone – NBN Co managed 285,000 upgrades.
The regulatory document suggests the company is anticipating “around 300,000” upgrades per year for the period from FY24 to FY26.
But it is hoping to build “to over 500,000 per annum. for the period FY27 to FY29” – a sizable increase of users on full fibre, as well as a sizable increase in the number of fibre lead-ins it will have to build.
“Although the upgrade of the network serving 3.5 million FTTN premises is expected to be complete by December 2025, the work to connect individual premises to the FTTP network (both in that footprint and for the further 1.5 million premises in the FTTC footprint) will continue for some years,” NBN Co said.
It is budgeting about $2.2 billion in capital expenditure between FY27 and FY29 for “the installation of fibre lead-ins and associated customer connection activities as part of the FTTN to FTTP and FTTC to FTTP upgrade programs.”
It pledged to “undertake further consultation on this during February 2025.”
A stacked bar chart shows it is intending to spend a bit less than $1.5 billion between FY24 and FY26 on full-fibre conversions.
Industry is currently invited to provide input on the draft plan, which has to be finalised for submission to the ACCC by mid-2025.